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Tesla is losing market shares to Ford Mustang Mach-E, according to Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is out with a new report stating that Tesla is losing market shares to the Ford Mustang Mach-E in the US.

The firm released its February 2021 US auto sales report and they found that electric vehicle sales were up by almost 40%.

Tesla still had majority market shares, but it fell compared to last year and Morgan Stanley attributes the change almost entirely to the Mustang Mach-E:

BEV sales outgrew the total market by nearly 40% (EV +34% YoY adj. vs. total market -5%). Tesla’s share of the BEV market declined significantly to 69% vs. 81% in the prior year. The Ford Mustang Mach-E accounted for nearly 100% of the share loss.

Here are some other electric vehicle highlights from Morgan Stanley’s US auto sales report:

  • While total industry sales on a selling day adjusted basis was -5.4% y/y, BEV sales came in at +34.1% y/y.
  • Tesla nominal sales estimated at +5.4%; Non-Tesla BEV sales +104.9%
  • Tesla accounted for 69% of BEV share vs. last year at 81%.
  • BEV penetration for the month was 2.6% vs. 1.8% last year. However, BEV sales likely account for a higher percentage of revenue given their higher ASPs.
  • Tesla’s 21,550 assumed US sales compared to the rest of the OEM BEV US sales of 9,527 which consists of: Jaguar, BMW, Porsche, Audi, Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, VW, Nissan, Volvo, Mini Cooper, Mercedes, Honda, Ford and Fiat. Tesla appears to be outselling the rest of the OEMs in BEVs by ~2.3x.

Electrek’s Take

It’s important to note that Tesla doesn’t break down sales as much as other automakers and registration data are not available in every state. The result is that Tesla’s sales in the market are estimates versus actual sale numbers.

Tesla also allocates production to various markets differently from other automakers.

Its monthly sales vary greatly month to month as it sends inventory from its Fremont factory to other markets.

I would also note that Model S and Model X production was shut down in February due to the refresh and Model 3 production slowed down due to part supply issues.

You can see those as excuses, but I think that’s relevant information if you want to look at Tesla’s deliveries in the US in February.

But despite all this, I think the data tells a story that we have been expecting and it’s healthy for the EV market.

Tesla’s market shares dropped as more EVs, like the Mustang Mach-E, are entering the market, but it’s overall deliveries have still grown in the US.

As I stated in my report of overall EV sales in the US in 2020, we are going to keep seeing this trend happening.

Last year, Tesla had 79% of the US EV market, which itself represented only 1.8% of the US auto market.

I think Tesla will dip below 60% this year, but it will still be growing in the US market as the EV market itself grows to around 5% of the broader auto market.

Next year is going to be even more significant, with higher volume vehicles and especially electric pickup trucks. In 2022, I see Tesla’s market share of the EV market in the US fall below 50%, but EV market shares in the overall automotive market are going to be over 10%.

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