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Tesla Model 3 production has a clear path to 8,000 units per week, says analyst after Fremont factory visit

Tesla claims that Model 3 production is now steadily at over 5,000 units per week and it is ramping up production up to 10,000 units per week at a slower pace.

The company has reportedly invited financial analysts to visit the Fremont factory and one of them came out with a very positive outlook on the current production ramp.

Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers wrote in a note to clients today following his visit:

“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week, and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure.”

Earlier this month, Tesla reiterated the goal to achieve a production rate of 6,000 units per week by the end of August.

Tesla is being more vague about the rest of the production ramp to 10,000 Model 3s per week – instead saying that they plan to get there “as fast as [they] can.”

They expect that most of the line will be ready to achieve that by the end of the year, but there will likely be some bottlenecks. They instead target the full production goal for “sometime next year”.

As mentioned by Galliers, the ramp is supposedly going to require little capital expenditure. Tesla plans to increase the production rate with existing Model 3 lines rather than adding all new lines, which will result in a significant cut back on their capital expenditure by almost $1 billion.

Despite his positive outlook on the Model 3 production ramp following his visit of Fremont factory, Galliers maintains a $301 price target on Tesla’s stock, which is lower than the current trading price.

Galliers is ranked #1,746 out of 4,850 Analysts on TipRanks with a success rate of 57% and an average return of 25.3%. He has previously recommended buying Tesla’s stock. Here’s his rating history on Tesla:

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