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Tesla Model Y production on track for 1,000 per week in mid-2020, analyst says after factory tour

An automotive analyst says that Tesla Model Y production is on track for 1,000 vehicles per week in mid-2020 after a Fremont factory tour.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo came out with a new note to clients about Tesla this week after visiting the Fremont factory, which is something Tesla sometimes offers to analysts and investors.

After the visit, Kallo believes that Tesla is on track for Model Y volume production of about 1,000 cars per week by mid-2020.

In March, Tesla unveiled the Model Y, an all-electric crossover based on Model 3, with up to 300 miles of range.

The automaker said that it plans to bring the vehicle to production in fall 2020.

We recently learned that Tesla is working on a fifth assembly line at the Fremont factory as the automaker is preparing the production of its fifth electric vehicle.

With the release of its Q3 2019 financial results last month, Tesla announced that the preparations for the start of production are moving faster than anticipated:

Model Y equipment installation is under way in advance of the planned launch next year. We are moving faster than initially planned, using learnings and efficiencies gained from our Gigafactory Shanghai factory design.

Tesla confirmed that they are moving the timeline from fall 2020 to summer 2020:

We are also ahead of schedule to produce Model Y and now expect to launch by summer 2020.

CEO Elon Musk said that he expects Tesla to achieve volume production, which he describes as about 1,000 units per week, by mid-2020.

Kallo thinks the goal is achievable after his Fremont factory visit.

The analyst thinks Tesla is well-positioned right now from a manufacturing standpoint:

“Production appears to be ramping in the China factory, and we think Chinese vehicles should be margin accretive over the long run, given lower manufacturing costs in the region. Additionally, TSLA plans to begin construction on the European factory in the near-term, and is expected to develop Model Y manufacturing capacity in both regions, as well.”

Kallo also noted that he expects FCA to give ~$150 million per quarter to Tesla for European emission credits starting in the next quarter. That’s a deal that has been rumored for a while now and could make Tesla up to $2 billion over the next 2 years.

The analyst commented:

“We remain buyers and continue to believe shares will move higher, as continued execution on profitability and cash generation should coincide with multiple expansion,”

Ben Kallo is ranked #546 out of 5,739 Analysts on TipRanks with a success rate of 58% and an average return of 7.9%. He has been maintaining a buy rating on Tesla’s stock over the last two years:

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