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Tesla is going to “rethink” Model 3 production planning as reservations now reach 3 years current output – now 232,000

model 3 wild

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed tonight that the automaker has now over 232,000 reservations for its newly unveiled Model 3:

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Musk has been updating the public on the Model 3 reservations tally which has blown past the most optimistic predictions.

Around 100,000 people reserved the car with a $1,000 refundable deposit before even seeing the car. At the event of the unveiling event last night, Tesla had over 150,000. Musk later said he was surprised by the rate at which reservations have kept coming in throughout the day- to now 232,000.

The CEO expects an average sales price of ~$42,000 per vehicle which would add up to almost $10 billion in backlog with a perfect reservation to order conversion rate. At its current estimated production rate of ~80,000 cars per year, it would take Tesla about 3 years to get through this backlog.

Musk said that Tesla is going to need to rethink production planning:

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In a press release after the unveil, Tesla wrote that it should start Model 3 production in late-2017 and ramp up to ~500,000 units by 2020.

Interestingly, a Model 3 prototype was spotted in Marina Del Rey for a photoshoot or promo video. It’s likely the first instance of the vehicle being spotted in the wild:

Full album on Reddit by MichaelAmbrosi

For pictures from the unveiling event and everything we know about the vehicle, you can visit our summary here.

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  1. QC - 7 years ago

    1) faster ramp up at fremont to the 500 000
    2) new car factory in europe (between france/germany border?) with 1/3 size of fremont
    3) new gigafactory in india to supply batteries for both EU/Africa/Asia markets
    4) JV factory in Suzhou with 1/5 size of fremont

  2. God damn what a Good looking car.
    In a couple of years it will be mine.. Mine i say..

  3. Dave - 7 years ago

    Great car. But I was shocked seeing the small opening of the trunk. WTF? How do I get my bike in there? I know, big glass roof, but still. ..hope they change that till production starts. Out of that I would direkt buy one.

    • James Rowland - 7 years ago

      It seems Tesla prioritised rear headroom over versatility. The structure required to support a hatchback would intrude into that space; this was one of the criticisms levelled at Model S.

      However, S was much praised for the versatility of the rear space. Nobody is going to praise Model 3 for this. There’s echoes here of Model X and its non-folding second row seats; some cancelled their orders over that, having seen folding ones in the prototype.

      Only if you often have adult passengers in the second row is this good. It’s bad if you ever want to move large objects.

      Personally, I far more often want the latter than the former; this is not the prioritisation I would have made. Still, no doubt it will benefit some. I for one could live with it.

      Not sure I can live with the weirdmobile dashboard though. Autonomy is coming, but for now I still buy cars with the intent of driving them. A widget in the corner of a cluttered touchscreen is no place for your primary instruments.

      • Bob Nickson - 7 years ago

        Maybe someone can write an ipad app so that an ipad mini can be used as a secondary display directly in front of the driver, with some different skin options available.

    • George D - 7 years ago

      You are aware that most of the storage space is in the front, right? Small efficient electric engines mean it has a ‘frunk’.

  4. Halvor - 7 years ago

    I was shocked when I saw the small opening in the trunk as well. If they don’t change this, they will for sure lose a lot of customers here in Norway and in the rest of Europe.

    You should really make an article about this, and try to get some info from Tesla regarding if this only for the prototype.

    • James Rowland - 7 years ago

      There’s no way they’ll change the rear door this close to production. It’s a pity; I really don’t think this was a good trade-off against rear headroom.

      • Daniel Scott (@Dss33) - 7 years ago

        My guess is that with the additional planned versions based on the platform (Model Y, for example), they’ll have one that’s built more for utility than this, which is more about moving people comfortably. I’d also guess they’ll solve the bike issue in a similar way to the Model X with a sleek rack on the back.

      • Nathanael - 7 years ago

        FWIW there were serious complaints about rear headroom in Model S.

    • darthbelichick07 - 7 years ago

      The Model Y will be the crossover vehicle, not the Model 3. There are also Leafs, Priuses, and the BMW i3 if you’re in the market for a hideous looking Hybrid/EV hatchback.

      Musk said it will be capable of carrying an 8ft surfboard internally, so, presumably, the rear seats fold down, giving long access through the trunk. This means that it should be able to carry 8-10 foot long wooden planks and other building materials from your home supply store. As for bicycles, you’ll probably need to get a bike rack.


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